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A Lesson In Sports Economics

(It is time for a sports math lesson. Realize that since sports and finances are involved the final outcome will seem obvious to you but a mystery to the people that run the sports.)

 It seems like you need a Masters degree in economics (or criminal justice) to read the sports section these days. Players are making millions, while their team is bankrupt. A team takes in tens of millions of dollars in naming rights to paint a company's name on a stadium, but a hot dog still costs $5.00.  Owners of last place teams make millions of dollars a year in salary while their team loses money and can't afford to spend money on talent that would make the team competitive. If this seems bass ackwards to you don't feel bad. The finances surrounding a professional team appear so simple that a teenager could run a franchise, but are extremely complex. The financial side of sports is so complicated that the average person's head would explode if they tried to negotiate the simplest contract. This is because sports bigwigs have made things so difficult that they will always be needed, thus insuring job security. Here is a taste of how pro sports confuse and annoy their fans, all while blaming it on the bottom line.

 For the first time ever the NFL salary cap is going to exceed $80 million. That may sound like a lot of money, but when you realize that this money is spread out amongst 52 players, it averages $1.538 million per player. Ok, I'll admit that is a lot of money, but most teams have few players who come close to seeing that much money in their paycheck. The majority of teams have several players who make anywhere from 5-15 million dollars per season. One or two star players can quickly take up a third of a team's entire payroll. That leaves many players who face the unemployment line once they make too much money. If you work hard, play great, bide your time, and finally get that big pay day you have been dreaming of, you will be released before you see much of that money. At least you will have the comfort of knowing that the young rookie you have taken under your wing will now replace you for a fraction of the cost. No wonder players in the NFL hate that their contracts aren't guaranteed like other sports.

 When attempting to figure out sports math hockey and soccer need to be excluded from the discussion. Major League Soccer has a maximum salary that is below other sports' veteran minimum, and the league's highest paid player is only fourteen. Hockey payrolls are on the rise but a potentially crippling lockout looms just a few months away. Many players signed just for this year because they know next year is a question mark. Some teams are dumping salary regardless of what they get in return, while other teams seem unfazed by any potential work stoppage. They just want to win now; regardless of what position it might put their franchise in down the line. While talk about a work stoppage may just be talk, the league has said negotiations may take over eighteen months, and they are ready for the long haul. As an alternative a hockey league led by Bobby Hull may, at least temporarily, take the place of the NHL. Free agents will have a place to play, and fans won't have to follow European leagues to hear about their favorite players.

 The remaining two major sports have the most distorted salary structures, these being basketball and baseball. Basketball's trading deadline just expired and the hottest commodities were players who wouldn't be playing for their new team next year. Many teams were looking for players in the last year of their contract that would become free agents next year, freeing up millions of dollars in salary cap space. Teams were trading injured players for able-bodied athletes, sometimes even star players. Basketball has turned into a league that is obsessed with salary cap space. An average player who has signed a multi-year free agent contract quickly turns into an albatross for their team. That all changes when the player reaches the last year of his contract, then he is worth a fortune. The more money he is being paid, the happier a potential suitor is. Where else could you trade a player who never gets off the bench (but is making mid seven figures in his walk year) for a few first round draft picks or a few low salary starters? It only happens in the other sport without a true minor league, football. The NBA has turned into a league where long contracts are evil and your backup could be more valuable than your starter if he is paid more. Wasn't the point of the game to win a title, not always look towards next year? When else in basketball's history could you add two Hall of Fame players (Karl Malone and Gary Payton) and have them willing to take huge pay cuts? That is what the NBA has become about. The good teams can sign great players for pennies on the dollar, while the rest of the league has to overpay for the remaining scraps of talent.  

Oh the joy that has become baseball. When six of the top dozen highest paid players play for the same team, well that is a problem. It is also a problem when one team has a payroll that will approach two hundred million dollars. Does baseball need a salary cap? Yes, but expect a team comprised of Martians to win the World Series before a salary cap is installed. When one player makes almost as much as entire teams then things need to change. A twenty-five-man team can have a payroll that is between 25-200 million dollars, and half the league has a payroll that equals the difference between the first and second most frivolous teams. That is completely absurd. How can a team that can't even afford one or two decent players have any chance in being a playoff contender? Even the "poor" teams that have been playoff contenders in recent years have done so with homegrown talent. Those teams have managed to stay competitive by augmenting the talented All-Stars they lose by having a deep farm system. If you can't develop a deep system or draft efficiently then forget about being competitive for the next decade unless you are willing to spend a few hundred million. 

This is the way America seems to work. The rich and successful tend to carry more weight that the less fortunate that craves change. If you don't have the money than your voice won't be heard. Sports seem to parallel those rules.  So, which sport has the best model to follow? A league with a competitive balance where any team can go from last to first in a year, a league where those who spend the most win, or a league where management cares more about getting rid of players than the players on your own team? It might be a bit hypocritical (my beloved Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls) but I think football has the correct idea. While balance and everyone living by the same rules may not be exciting, it makes for the best sports experience. Had the Red Sox acquired Alex Rodriguez instead of the Yankees I might have had a change of heart, but what can you do? At least the Celtics are in good sha...well the Patriots have won the last two Super Bowls. Maybe football really is the way to go.     

Free Agents to Watch 

Every team wants to hit a home run in the off-season and get the best players they can get. Sometimes the biggest names and highest paid players don’t have the biggest impact over the course of the season. I have compiled a list of free agents that have something to prove this year. They may be returning from injuries, playing for a big contract, or just trying to earn a job. Watch these players though, they could very well have a major contribution to the 2004 baseball season.

 Arizona – 2B – Roberto Alomar – This is most likely Alomar’s last chance to prove he can still be an everyday player. He has struggled since leaving Cleveland, and hasn’t been the defensive wizard or offensive catalyst he was in the past. He gets one more shot to prove he still has gas in his tank. For Arizona to do anything this season they need Alomar to regain his Hall of Fame form. 

Arizona – P – Shane Reynolds – When your top two pitchers are an over 40 fastball pitcher and a man in his first full year, well that spells trouble. I won’t shed a tear because Arizona traded away Curt Schilling because now the Red Sox will win the World Series (stop laughing). Reynolds gives the financially strained Diamondbacks a solid innings eater who can get double digit wins. Reynolds is a crafty veteran whose knowledge could rub off on a young Arizona staff.

 Atlanta – P – Antonio Alfonseca – The last time the Braves starting rotation was a question mark was when I was in Junior High. Any questionable rotation needs a strong bullpen, another question mark for the Braves. With John Smoltz having occasional health issues (as well as a desire to start again) Alfonseca is a former All-Star caliber reliever who can close if necessary.

 Chicago C – 2B – Todd Walker – The rap on Walker has always been a great bat and a bad glove. Seeing Walker every day last year proved to me that while he may have occasional lapses in the field, Walker can more than hold his own. At the plate, well lets just say the Red Sox wouldn’t have made the playoffs without him. He can play second, and is also willing to try his hand at 1B and the outfield. Walker might just be the offensive weapon the Cubs could use in the #2 spot in the order.

 Chicago C – P – LaTroy Hawkins – Chicago has a great staff, but they worked a lot of innings last year. Hawkins has gradually emerged as a pitcher who can fill any role in the bullpen. He is also capable of starting if needed. He was almost unhitable last year.

 Cleveland – P – Jose Jimenez – Cleveland is a team in need of any talent it can get. They let their closer walk, and hope a returning Bob Wickman can anchor the bullpen. Jimenez has been the closer in Colorado, so he can pitch in any situation and put up better numbers than he did in the thin air.

 Colorado – OF – Jeromy Burnitz – Burnitz had a bit of a resurgence last year. He was far from his All-Star form, but the thin air of Colorado should help boost his home run numbers. If he is healthy he could be a steal. 

Detroit – 2B – Fernando Vina – The Tigers are bad. They needed a late season winning streak to prevent becoming the worst team in baseball history. Vina won’t make them playoff contenders, but he will provide leadership and help energize the offense if healthy.

 Detroit – P – Jason Johnson – Johnson was #2 starter for the Orioles last year and at times looked like a future All-Star. Other times he looked like an Oriole pitcher. He has good talent, but his mechanics can be his undoing. If he can get himself straightened out he could be invaluable to a horrendous Tiger’s staff.

 Kansas City – C – Benito Santiago – Kansas City was baseball’s surprise team last year, outperforming everyone’s expectations. What the Royals need this year is a solid defensive catcher who can nurture their young staff, and more offense. Santiago gives them both.  

Kansas City – OF – Juan Gonzalez – This former MVP could hold the key for the Royals. If he can stay healthy he gives the team a dominant bat in the middle of the lineup that has been lacking since George Brett retired.

 Minnesota – C - Henry Blanco – with former #1 pick Joe Mauer set to be the Opening Day catcher the Twins need a solid backup who can mentor the youngster. Blanco is an outstanding defensive catcher who knows how to work a staff. He might not see much time in the field, but Blanco will be a key piece of the Twins playoff aspirations.

 Montreal – 3B – Tony Batista – The Expos are a team without a home that lost their best pitcher and hitter in the off-season. Batista gives the Expos a middle of the order bat that could provide 30+ home runs and a veteran presence. While he won’t win a Gold Glove Batista is better than anyone else the Expos had. 

 Montreal – OF – Carl Everett – Everett went from injured locker room cancer to offensive machine last year. If he can continue to produce he would help soften the blow of losing Vlad Guerrero to the Angels. If Everett decides to loose his cool his fines would go right back into the team’s budget. Bud Selig had to figure he would baseball would recoup some of Everett’s contract through fines, so why not sign him.

 NY Mets – OF – Mike Cameron – The Mets have been a joke in recent years in almost every aspect of the game. Cameron gives them a legit 30/30 home run and stolen base threat, as well as Gold Glove defense. His defense alone will lower the team ERA by a quarter of a run.

 NY Yankees – P – Paul Quantrill – One of baseball’s best relievers is often overlooked, Quantrill has a rubber arm and will fill any role his team asks of him. With the turnover in the Yankee’s bullpen in recent years, Ouantrill should be a stabilizing force.

 Oakland – P – Arthur Rhodes – Rhodes struggled at the end of last year but he has been one of the best relievers in the majors since 2000. He will have the first shot at the Oakland closer’s position, and there is no reason to believe that he won’t be a success.

 San Diego – Ismael Valdes – Valdes has a world of talent but too much of his career is spent on the disabled list. When he is healthy he can be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. The Padres need all the veteran help they can get, and if Valdes is healthy he will be a steal.

 San Diego – OF – Jay Payton – Payton resurrected his career in Colorado last year, proving he can be a solid starting outfielder. The Padres need offense and speed, both of which Payton gives them. Payton could also be valuable as trade bait once the playoffs approach. 

San Francisco – Brett Tomko – Tomko has never lived up to his superstar promise, but pitchers have a way of fixing their careers SF. The Giants have traded away pitching for offense (and payroll relief) in recent years and Tomko could help fill a middle of the rotation spot.

 Seattle – SS – Rich Aurillia – This former All-Star will be the best shortstop Seattle has had since that A-rod guy left to make half a billion dollars in Texas. Aurillia can hit for power and average, provide solid defense, and steal a few bases. He will help Seattle make a strong playoff push.

 Tampa Bay – OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – The Devil Rays have one of the most promising young teams in baseball. What they need is veteran leadership, but also talent. Cruz is young enough to relate to the upcoming Rays, but has been around long enough to know the ins and outs of the game. He has great talent and could also help make one of baseball’s best young outfields even better.

 Tampa Bay – P – Danys Baez – Cleveland needed a closer and Danys Baez needed a role to fill. Baez has a wealth of talent but has never found his niche. Last year he did a commendable job as the Indian’s closer. For the Rays Baez could take over the closer role, or be used in any other role on the Ray’s staff. He really can do it all.

 Texas – P – Jeff Nelson – Nelson was once the premier setup man in baseball. He has slipped a bit in recent years, but Nelson still knows how to pitch. Texas has one of the worst bullpens in baseball, but Nelson should help improve that. 

Texas – P – Kenny Rogers – If there is one thing is worse than the Ranger’s bullpen it is their starting rotation. Enter former Ranger ace Kenny Rogers. He is no longer a Cy Young candidate, but he will be one of the few stable pitchers in Texas. He could quietly win 15 games and he knows how to pitch.

 Toronto – P – Miguel Batista – Quietly had the lowest ERA of any free agent in baseball. He is one of baseball’s most versatile pitchers and his playoff experience will do worlds of good for a young Jays staff. He could be the addition that gives the Blue Jays a push towards the playoffs. 

Toronto – P – Pat Hentgen – The former Cy Young winner returned to the place of his greatest success. Hentgen has battled arm troubles the last few years so his return to prominence is far from assured. If Hentgen can regain his old form than the Jays rotation might just be able to hang with the Red Sox and Yankees.

WRESTLING IS HELL
Imagine getting up at the crack of dawn in a crappy two star motel. Maybe if you are lucky you get free coffee before you have to travel three hours to an airport. You grab some overpriced fast food for breakfast while waiting in line at the airport. You take the cheapest flight you can find with stopovers in places you never heard of. Finally you arrive at your destination. Now all you have to do is drive for a few hours to an “arena” in some town that isn’t even on the map. After an hour you stop at a diner and grab some more greasy food. Back in the car and another hour until you reach your new crappy hotel. A quick workout and shower, then you take a power nap. 

Grab your gear and then onto the event. You get to the venue and the locker room is small and colder inside than it is outside. You make some small talk with a few familiar faces, but most of the people you don’t know. You find the promoter and find out whom you are wrestling tonight. Someone you have never wrestled before, or even heard of for that matter. Now you have to find this guy and plan a match. You are jobbing tonight, putting over some young kid who looks like he is straight out of high school. You go over a few basic ideas, but your opponent doesn’t even know half of the moves you are talking about. “This must be some green punk. Tonight is going to be crap,” you think. You finally convince the kid, who cares what his name is, to let you call the match. You have done it thousands of times before, tonight will just be the same.

You look at the schedule and you are in the middle of the card. “I use to main event sold out arenas, PPV’s all over the world. Now I am in the middle of a show with 300 people in the audience. I am getting just enough money to cover my expenses, and ruining my life in the process.” About half an hour later you go get ready to go on. No entrance video, no pyro, just your music played over a crappy sound system. It’s time to give the fans what they paid for.

You and the kid start the match with a lockup, and you call for an armdrag, but get an armbar. “Great start” you think. He can’t even get the simple stuff right. You shoot him off the ropes and signal for a leapfrog. You drop down and he trips over you. You do your best to try to make it look like a drop toe hold, but it is obvious a blown move. You call a suplex, but he tries the move on you. “Damn kid is messing up everything.” You finally get a flow together, even with the kid messing up a few more times. He is going to finish you off with a superkick, but he nails you with a dropkick to the face. You stay down and get pinned, even as your face is bleeding and swelling up. After the match you stagger to the back, already banged up and bruised from the match. You go back to the locker room for some ice and to check with the trainer. You will probably need a few stitches, but that is nothing new for you. You ask around for the nearest medical facility, but run into the promoter first. He hands you your check and you go to the hospital to get stitched up.

Before you go the kid comes up to you and tells you how honored he is to have had a match with one of his favorite wrestlers growing up. You mutter something back to the kid about having a bright future, and then grab your stuff. A few fans stop you for autographs, but you just want to be left alone. You sign anyway, then head towards the hospital. While you are waiting to be seen by a doctor, you pull out your check and realize the promoter stiffed you. He only paid you half what you agreed upon. You are pissed but realize there is nothing you can do now. You get stitched up and go back to your crappy motel. Gotta grab some sleep before you wake up and do the same thing again tomorrow.

Just a few years ago you were pulling down 6 figures, getting merchandise checks and endorsements on the side. Life was good, that was until you didn’t “fit the current product” anymore. At least that was what you were told. You know they were just cutting some contracts, freeing up some cash for the next great talent. You look in the mirror at your new injuries and think about where you were. As crappy as this is, you have no other choice. What else can you do? You never finished school, and you have no real skills. This is your life now.

A few years later you turn on the TV and happen to catch the program of the company that fired you several years ago. You are now older and more bruised up, but still living on the road. The show isn’t bad, that is until you get to the main event. The match is for the title between a rookie you use to mentor and the same kid that couldn’t wrestle his way out of a paper bag. You get up and look at the scar that same kid caused. He never had any talent and watching the match you realize he still has no talent. After a downright awful match the kid wins the title, a belt you use to proudly wear. “This is crap” you yell, the shut off the TV. Welcome to the glamorous life of a wrestler. Oh and a bug just ran across your pillow.